We spent some time last night discussing the Governor’s latest budget proposal and how it will play into the Legislature’s budget process. The Governor is planning on borrowing against an “enhanced” State lottery and, if that fails, increasing the State’s sales tax by 1% to “balance” the budget.
Voters would have to approve the lottery change, but the Legislature could approve the sales tax increase itself…provided at least 4 or 5 Republican members vote for it to secure the necessary 2/3 supermajority. That’s considered extremely unlikely.
It’s also unclear if the lottery could be enhanced the way the proposal assumes it can be. If it can’t, then any borrowing against lottery income would have to be met by cutting the lottery’s support of education. That, and the opposition of various gaming interests who don’t want to see the lottery become a bigger competitor, means the proposed lottery change is not a slam dunk, by any means.
In any year the Governor’s proposal is just a proposal, and subject to change. But this particular proposal is seen as much more problematic than usual by the experts who understand the State budget process. So while on paper education is getting a better deal than a few months ago, we need to take what we’re hearing with a large dose of salt.